Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance.

Genomic sequencing is essential to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments, vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we used sequences shared via GISAID to estimate the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times on variant detection in 189 countries. In the first two years of the pandemic, 78% of high-income countries sequenced >0.5% of their COVID-19 cases, while 42% of low- and middle-income countries reached that mark. Around 25% of the genomes from high income countries were submitted within 21 days, a pattern observed in 5% of the genomes from low- and middle-income countries. We found that sequencing around 0.5% of the cases, with a turnaround time <21 days, could provide a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. Socioeconomic inequalities undermine the global pandemic preparedness, and efforts must be made to support low- and middle-income countries improve their local sequencing capacity.

Scalable Bayesian phylogenetics.

Recent advances in Bayesian phylogenetics offer substantial computational savings to accommodate increased genomic sampling that challenges traditional inference methods. In this review, we begin with a brief summary of the Bayesian phylogenetic framework, and then conceptualize a variety of methods to improve posterior approximations via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Specifically, we discuss methods to improve the speed of likelihood calculations, reduce MCMC burn-in, and generate better MCMC proposals. We apply several of these techniques to study the evolution of HIV virulence along a 1536-tip phylogeny and estimate the internal node heights of a 1000-tip SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic tree in order to illustrate the speed-up of such analyses using current state-of-the-art approaches. We conclude our review with a discussion of promising alternatives to MCMC that approximate the phylogenetic posterior. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Genomic population structures of microbial pathogens'.

Introduction and Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant in New York City in Early 2021.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants is an important public health objective. We investigated how the Gamma variant was established in New York City (NYC) in early 2021 in the presence of travel restrictions that aimed to prevent viral spread from Brazil, the country where the variant was first identified. METHODS: We performed phylogeographic analysis on 15,967 Gamma sequences sampled between March 10th through May 1st, 2021, to identify geographic sources of Gamma lineages introduced into NYC. We identified locally circulating Gamma transmission clusters and inferred the timing of their establishment in NYC. RESULTS: We identified 16 phylogenetically-distinct Gamma clusters established in NYC (cluster sizes ranged 2-108 genomes); most of them were introduced from Florida and Illinois and only one directly from Brazil. By the time the first Gamma case was reported by genomic surveillance in NYC on March 10th, the majority (57%) of circulating Gamma lineages had already been established in the city for at least two weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Although travel from Brazil to the US was restricted from May 2020 through the end of the study period, this restriction did not prevent Gamma from becoming established in NYC as most introductions occurred from domestic locations.